I don't see anything alarming in the metrics from last week. Hampshire County is still in the low risk category based on cases and hospitalizations, and still in the "substantial" community transmission category (based on CDC categories). More MA counties are moving from the medium risk category to the low risk category, and one county (Franklin) has also dropped from substantial transmission to moderate. All good news. I am noting, however, that there is currently a slight uptick in viral concentration in wastewater surveillance data. At this point I'm not seeing red flags for major disruption coming. We'll just keep our eye on it.
When I write that, I reflect on why we need to keep an eye on metrics at this point. Unless there is a new variant or a large surge, I suspect we won't see mitigation measures back in place for the general public. But I remind myself to step back and think about the "10,000 foot view." While COVID-19 may not be a serious risk for some, it remains a serious risk for others. Last week, more than 3000 people died from COVID-19. We've seen those numbers week after week, this year and nearly all of last year. Only a few weeks last year dipped below 3000 deaths per day (and many weeks were much higher). COVID-19 is the 3rd leading cause of death in the United States. Heart disease and cancer cause 3-4x more deaths per week than COVID-19, but other diseases that we often compare, like influenza, aren't even in the same ballpark. In a very bad year of the flu, there might be as many 1000 deaths a week - 500 per week is about average. 3000 vs. 500 a week... you might be thinking that it's tough to compare the flu and COVID-19 with a "weekly average" because the flu is seasonal and an average doesn't reflect what happens during any given week during flu season. I was curious about this comparison too, so I pulled specific data from last week in the US: Last week there were 2,501 pneumonia / influenza / COVID-19 (PIC) deaths in the US. Almost half are due to COVID-19 (1167 - 47%). Just 2% of the deaths (44) were due to influenza. I think that nicely highlights the difference in severity, and serves as a reminder of why we continue to provide weekly information on COVID-19. And it's not just "out there" - we are continuing to see hospitalizations and deaths in our local community.
(By the way, you might be scratching your head right now, wondering how I could say there were more than 3000 COVID-19 deaths last week and then in the same paragraph highlight that 47% of the 2500 PIC deaths were due to COVID-19. It's because those figures come from 2 different surveillance systems - the PIC data comes from the flu surveillance network, which tracks "influenza-like illnesses" and the death data comes from, well, death data reported by states.)
Best,
Megan W. Harvey, PhD (she/her)
Epidemiologist
